E-mini S&P 500 Trending Higher Towards Bracket High (SPX - Plain Analysis)

Yesterday the ES June contract (ESM0) closed as an inside day without testing the high or low of Friday's price range. As the market dips into the high highs we can conclude a possible inside day failure pattern. For this we should look out for absorption patterns on the lower timeframes such as the hourly periodicity. A conclusion would be a pullback to the previous balnaced price range followed by support again. However the market heading towards the next level of possible resistance which would be the prior bracket high. Let's see how the market will evolve around the highs for now.

TPO Intra-day Analysis on ES

A quick glar on the daily TPO profiles and we can see that the market closed as a p-shaed profile yesterday. Today the market opened way below the value close area. At the first glance we should be bearish. However, we are kind of far below the POC, therefore the probability to revisit the value close area was higher. As the day unfolded we can observe that the market were magnetized to the value area. Currently we test the VAl close level and trying to test the POC close level. Let's see what happens here to conclude a possible bearish trade scenario - until the market does not break above the mentioned POC.

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TPO Analysis on ES - Double Distribution

Looking at the daily TPO on the E-mini S&P 500 we can observe a double distribution profile with an open inside of value in the lower distribution. The market found support at the excess low and surged to the higher extreme of the mentioned distribution. To be noted is the current unsecured swing high which could be revisted.

There are three possible scenarios - a rotational behavior inside of the distribution - a break higher to fill the low volume area - and a break lower to continue the sell off movement. Volume based we can identify a b-shaped profile which should be handled as a bullish pattern but we opened inside of value, therefore its better to see how the market will react around the balance/distribution extremes.