Crude Oil Inventory Increased Around +3.24%

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 15.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 484.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% above the five year average for this time of year. Source: EIA

Looking at the current chart of the Crude Oil Inventory we can see a "trend" higher since some weeks; forming a "double top".

US Oil Rig Count Decreasing

The US Oil Rig Count measures the number of oil rigs functioning in the United States.
- Source Ycharts

The current decrease in the US Oil Rig count is to be mentioned for sure. It could explain the current surge in the Crude oil market (CL) as well (obviously combined with other data).

WTI Crude Oil Daily Observations

Looking a the current daily strucutre we can observe a balance behavior. Yesterday the market closed as an inside day; therefore we can observe the high/low area for any absorption pattern. Obviously a inside day break to surge higher to the bracket high could be possible as well. Additionally, we still have a open gap which should be revisted and filled. For now we observe the balance extremes for an absorption pattern to conclude a rotational scenario to the other side of balance extreme. Let's keep it simple.

Crude oil COT Report

The managed money sectore net sold 26.413 contracts of WTI Crude oil as of March 3. Mixed with 5.150 long contracts and 31.563 short contracts. We can see small increase in hold short positions and a strong decrease in hold net positions.

From: https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/commitment-of-traders-energy.html

Reposted: https://leprivatebanker.com/2020/03/09/crude-oil-cot-report/

COT Report for WTI Crude oil as of February 18

The managed money sector net sold 26.687 contracts of WTI Crude oil as of February 18 (Options and Futures combined) with a long liquidation of 15.326 contracts and 11.261 short position contracts got into the market. Looking at the net hold postions we can observe a decrease since January.

You can see the full details here: https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/commitment-of-traders-energy.html

Crude Oil Market Observations

Repost from Insights blog

It is time to write an update for the next trading day. I will go only through four charts which would be the plain daily, weekly/daily volume profiles and the VWAP chart. Currently I stick to this simple approach for any market as it’s nerve-wracking to have hundreds of timeframes all over the place.

First off the plain daily perspective: Thursday was an inside day. Friday broke the low and closed way below it. With this little observation I am quite bearish for Monday.

The value close area is in the upper range of the previous week’s profile. VAL and VPOC are potential resistance levels. Some low volume areas are observable as well. One of them is confluent with the VAL.

Looking at the daily profiles, we can identify a ‘b’ shaped profile inclusive a “selling tail”. Value area is located in

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