Tuesday, December 30, 2014

USD vs CNH Technical Analysis

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Here's a quick technical perspective what we are seeing with the USD/CNH currently. As usual, we will walk through our top down process looking for the path of least resistance and market context.

To start out, let's take a look at where we are from a pure Monthly bars and Weekly bars perspective to view the macro context. We can see that the market formed a balance area in the previous months. Actually the market broke out to the upside and trading above that balance area now. With the installed Fibonacci levels we can see that the market found support at the 50% and the 61.8% level to form the bracket area. Currently the market testing a potential resistance area but could heading toward to the next marked area in the new year.

With looking at weekly bars chart, we can identify a one time framing higher market that occurs since several weeks. Also the previous week's high got taken out from the current one. However, we can observe a rejection area with the previous bracket low that holds since two weeks.

With installed EMAs on this weekly timeframe we can see that a bullish short-term trend is intact currently.

Moving forward to the daily perspective we can identify some brackets and gaps. With yesterday's close and today's open the market actually broke this current balance area. As we know gaps are potential areas that could be revisit. The market opened and moved lower to revisit and fill that open gap. There is also one more potential gap lower to target. With today's close within the bracket a test of the balance area low is somewhat probable.

It looks like the stream of buying died up here and some guys took profit today. This could lead to more short selling to revisit the next gap. With a close below 6.2135 the likelihood to explore lower prices would be higher. Anyway, everything can happen. Let's stay focused and react to market generated informations.

To learn more about our more indepth market analysis and methodology please visit our Trading Community

Success is an habit!

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Russian Ruble Technical Market Analysis

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Let's take a simple non-political purely technical perspective on the currency pair USD vs RUB. We are analyze markets like this because of educational purposes only and not for the reason that we are actually trading it as we do not. With that said, let us begin with with our Top Down Analysis.

With looking at the monthly bars chart, we can observe an one-time-framing higher market condition that occurs since five months. Also the previous month's high got taken out. 

Moving forward to the weekly bars chart, we can see an one-time-framing higher market as well. Especially this week's volatility was heavy as we can see it. After a substantial drop in Ruble's value the market finally closed nearly this week's open and left behind a enormous candle tail. There are also two potential support levels marked.

With installed Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) we can see that the short term trend with the 5, 10 and 20 EMAs is intact. Some weeks ago the market opened below the month's average but found support at the 10 EMA to move higher.

With looking at the daily bars chart, we can identfy a balance area and various support as well as resistance levels. The market closed and just sitting on the bracket low. A potential break could lead us to the next support zone. If the bracket low holds we could see a test of the balance area high.

With the zoomed in 240 minutes chart we can see a clear supportive zone alongside with a smaller balance area. So the probability of a balanced market behaivor is high, especially because of the holidays. Anyway, we'll see what for tools Russia will use to stabilize their currency. So everything can happen in this market.

With this information in our minds we could expect some balanced days next week. Maybe the market can take out the previous week's low as well as the daily bracket low to end this one time framing higher market and the value drop of Russia's Ruble.

Stay happy!

Monday, December 15, 2014

Crude Oil Educational Market Analysis Report

We are glad to provide you a sneak peek in one of our new projects: Educational Market Reports. The weekly educational reports cover a summary of the week with various analysis tools like VWAP or the TPO profile and potential scenarios for the week ahead. The reports are available for our community traders with an elite membership.

Here is the Crude Oil Weekly Report for the Close of November 21. 2014 as PDF file: Educational Crude Oil Market Report

Please Notice: This Report is simply an educational observation of the market and is not to be construed as investment or trading advice.

The current Educational Market Analysis for the Close of December 12. 2014 is available on The Private Banker Community:

Monday, December 8, 2014

Natural Gas Market Analysis

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This is an educational top down technical market perspective on Natural Gas. Looking at the monthly bars chart, we can see that this month opened in the middle of the balance area and took out the previous month's low. The market trading below this balance area now and moving forward to the next potential bullilsh support area that actually hold two months ago. Also, we can observe how the previous month got rejected from the last bracket area.

The previous week's low got taken out at the first day on this week and we are testing currently a potential support area. We'll see how the market will will react to this level now. The outside bar four weeks ago was the first heads up for a probable change in trend direction. This was followed by two inside weeks and the previous week finally took out the outside bar's low and closed below its range.

With a more bearish view we are moving forward to the daily bars chart. This timeframe one time framed lower since six days and left behind a gap area that could be a possible area to revisit. Friday's market took out the high from Thursday but closed inside of Thursday's range, so actually it was not a sign of change in trend. Anyway, today the previous low got taken out and the bearish trend remains. The next potential support area is marked on the chart.

Also interesting to mention on this daily timeframe was the nice support at the 61.8% Price Retracement level as well as the support at 50% level on the second test.

Looking at the weekly and daily timeframe with installed EMAs, we can see that the market is trading below the short-term EMAs as well as the long-term EMAs on both periodicities. Today's market for example opened around last week's average, so the probability of more selling occurring was high.

Let's take a look on the Regular Trading Hour's (RTH) TPO profile. We can cleary see a Double Distribution profile with an open gap area in the middle of last week's range. The previous week's low got taken out and the market left behind a unsecured high in the current profile.

Today's market opened inside of Firday's range and in the upper distribution area (ETH TPO Profile). All the day the market moved continuously lower and cleard Friday's unsecured low as well.

We hope you've enjoyed this quick educational market analysis recap. Stay happy and think simple!

What is VWAP, RTH, ETH, Bracket etc?
Take a look into our Trading Glossary.

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