All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Let's take a simple non-political purely technical perspective on the currency pair USD vs RUB. We are analyze markets like this because of educational purposes only and not for the reason that we are actually trading it as we do not. With that said, let us begin with with our Top Down Analysis.
With looking at the monthly bars chart, we can observe an one-time-framing higher market condition that occurs since five months. Also the previous month's high got taken out.
Moving forward to the weekly bars chart, we can see an one-time-framing higher market as well. Especially this week's volatility was heavy as we can see it. After a substantial drop in Ruble's value the market finally closed nearly this week's open and left behind a enormous candle tail. There are also two potential support levels marked.
With installed Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) we can see that the short term trend with the 5, 10 and 20 EMAs is intact. Some weeks ago the market opened below the month's average but found support at the 10 EMA to move higher.
With looking at the daily bars chart, we can identfy a balance area and various support as well as resistance levels. The market closed and just sitting on the bracket low. A potential break could lead us to the next support zone. If the bracket low holds we could see a test of the balance area high.
With the zoomed in 240 minutes chart we can see a clear supportive zone alongside with a smaller balance area. So the probability of a balanced market behaivor is high, especially because of the holidays. Anyway, we'll see what for tools Russia will use to stabilize their currency. So everything can happen in this market.
With this information in our minds we could expect some balanced days next week. Maybe the market can take out the previous week's low as well as the daily bracket low to end this one time framing higher market and the value drop of Russia's Ruble.
Stay happy!
