Brent Crude Oil Market Analysis

Here is our top down perspective for Brent Oil (Cash Market) with plain candle charts to understand the big picture in a simple way and to identify the path of least resistance. As usual, we will start out with the monthly timeframe periodicity. With looking at this timeframe, we can actually see that the market ended his one time framing lower behavior that occured since several months as January's high got taken out from the previous month. We can also see January's "successfull" reaction to the support level. However, in the actual month the market came back all the way down to the test the bullish trendline. We'll see how the market will react to this level as the forming of a potential balance area is possible as well.

Moving forward to the weekly chart, we can identify a balance area with a current possible scenario to the test the bracket low around $48.00.

With the installed EMAs on this timeframe we can observe that the market gone below the month's average line (5EMA) and the current week got rejected from this level as well. So, there is plenty room to the downside here:

With looking at the daily bars chart, we can see various balance areas. Yesterday the market got back into a previous bracket area with a strong move and currently the market is testing the low of this balance area. This could serve as possible support as well as the support level around $53.00.

Possible explanation of that support area could be the 50% Fibanocci level here:

Yesterday the market accepted the 10EMA as resistance and today we moved below this week's average line (5EMA).

It will be interesting to see what will happen in the next days, but with all this informations we could conclude a path of least resistance to the downside with continued downside rotations. However, we should bear in mind the daily bracket low and have a open mind for other possible scenarios.

Stay happy as success is "only" a habit!