WTI Crude Oil Market Update

Let's take a look into the WTI Crude Oil (spot price) market. As usual, we start out with the higher time frame perspective to figure out the path of least resistance. We will also show you the quaterly VWAP in action that we use in our trade methodology next to the monthly, weekly and daily VWAPs. However, firstly we should consider a look with plain candlestick bars starting with the monthly timeframe.

After a heavy one time framing lower market that occured several months the market finally found balance in this area. We bracketing around since two months with a current test of the upper balance area. We'll see how the market will react to this level now.

Moving forward to the weekly bars chart, we can observe a one time framing higher behavior since three weeks inside of a clear balance area. Currently the market testing the high of this bracket area. It will be iteresting to see what will happen here. Will we see rejection or a continuation of the upside movement to test some higher prices?

On the daily perspective the market is testing a balance area high as well. Important to note is the difference between various spot price data feeds. In this feed it appears we broke above the bracket high but on another data feed the market rejected the balance area high. Take a look at this three charts here:

Amazing, which one should we use now? For intra-day traders the very right one would be the best choice as it is the current futures May contract price. For long-term traders the spot price feed would be better as of holding positions for several weeks or months. However, there are a lot of options like continuous or back-adjusted charts and whatever more but this this is another story for itself as well as the topic about which levels are the very correct ones and which feed is better for the technical analysis purpose... Feel free to discuss this on our trading community anytime.

Let's take a quick look with installed EMAs as well. On the weekly chart we can see that the market broke the first two short-term trend EMAs and is on the way to test the third one. The daily short-term trend is actually intact and with the break of the first longer-term trend 50 EMA it seems the market moving higher to test the 100 EMA.

Well, let's moving forward to the Quaterly VWAP. With looking at this chart, we can see the market is trading above the developing value (whole blue area) as well as above the previous VWAP value close area. The VWAP slope of the developing value is also to the upside. We'll see how the market will react to the mentioned balance area high as this could lead us back to the developing value. Currently it appears we could still test some higher prices as there should be a lot of liquidity above the bracket highs.

Here is also a screenshot from the current TPO chart. You can read and learn more about this as well as about our intra-day trading approach on our trading community. Also, feel free to discuss about our top down technical analysis process. We looking forward to see you there!

Stay happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orange Juice Technical Market Analysis

To fine tunning our technical analysis it is a good idea to explore some other markets, out of curiosity and diversity as well as to sharpen our senses. The concept of thinking outside or inside the box appeals here as well. It does not mean to trade an other market or something but to go out and playing around like a kid is always a good idea in our opinion. With that said, let's check out the Orange Juice market!

It is very important to read and understand the bigger picture of a market. It is not funny to stick around with a piece of a puzzle. You will play the whole game and have much more fun with all pieces altogether to create the big picture. So here we go again with the monthly macro perspective as usual. We can see a price channel, the installed Fibanocci retracement tool and a lovely bracket area on this timeframe. The market rejected the 50% Fibanocci level that was confluent with the price channel's high. Currently the market is testing the lower area of this price channel that is actually confluent with the drawn bracket area high. A break should lead us to some lower prices again.

We keep it simple with the weekly bars chart. The market broke out of its actual balance area and moved into the previous micro bracket area with support at the balance area's bottom. The previous week was an inside bar, so we have a rotational balanced market here.

Looking at the daily bars chart, we can see the support at the 61.8% Fibanocci level and the current balanced behavior with a the recent test of the bracket low. With this information the market could see some higher prices to test the daily bracket area high for example. Actually there is also a wedge to keep an eye on.

With installed EMAs on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the market is trading below all six EMAs. Looking at the daily EMAs, we can see today's break of the first two short-term trend EMAs, so a test of the 20EMA should be possible.

Weekly EMAs

Daily EMAs

We'll see how the market will react to the mentioned levels. Stay open minded as everything can happen.

Stay happy!

Russian Ruble USD/RUB Market Update

Let's take a updated technical look into the USD vs RUB market. As usual, we start out with the plain monthly perspective to better understand the macro market structure. Looking at this timeframe, we can see a one time framing higher market. We see a selling tail candle followed by two inside months so far. Means the market is in a balanced state on this timeframe currently.

Moving forward to the weekly bars chart, we can observe that the last week ended the one time framing higher behavior as it took out the lows from the previous two weeks. The previous week's low got taken out as well today. We also marked some potential support/resistance levels that could help to form a balance area here. We'll see.

Now looking at the daily perspective, we can see some more details. The market nicely stopped at the marked resistance level and balancing lower now. We can identify several balance areas on this time timeframe. Currently the market seems to have some support at the orange bracket low but got back into the green bracket at the same time. Potential scenario could be a test of the green lows or a move back to the orange highs again. However, the daily bars chart is one time framing lower, so a break of today's high could lead the market back to the orange highs but bear in mind the green bracket high. We know... confusing situation here but it's only some analysis nothing more or less.

Let's check also the EMAs. The current week trading below the month's average but seems to have some support at the 10EMA. The daily perspective actually broke the three short-term trend EMAs to the downside and today's market seems to have tested the first long-term EMA 50.

Weekly EMA Chart

Daily EMA Chart

As mentioned a end of the daily one time framing lower behavior could lead us higher again. A non-break should lead us lower to the mentioned green balance area lows. We'll see.

Keep it simple!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPX 500 Top Down Perspective

Next to the 10 Year Treasury Note contract the E-mini S&P 500 contract [ES] is the most liquid futures contract that currently exists. With that, we should take a quick look into this market with our top down analysis process. In this process the first piece of information is the larger picture Monthly bar chart to understand the macro behavior of the selected market.

Looking at this monthly bar chart, we can see a heavy bullish imbalanced market. Obvious is the outside bar that could be a first sign of change in market context. However, the previous month was an inside bar and the current month seems to break higher. Currently the market is testing the marked resistance level. We'll see what will happen here.

The weekly chart is heading towards to the drawn bracket area high.

The daily perspective showing this balanced behavior in a more clear and greater detail. Currently the market is one time framing higher in this balance zone and moving forward to the bracket high.

With looking at the weekly EMAs, we can see support from the short-term trend 5EMA as well as 10EMA. The 20EMA served various times also as a great support:

The daily short-term as well as long-term bullish EMA trend is intact with current support from the 5EMA:

It will be interesting to see where this market will break out. The market could find resistance at the daily/weekly bracket high to return to lower areas again. However, a stop-run scenario to higher areas is possible as well. You can find more indepth analysis with VWAPs and TPOs on our trading community. This top down perspective was only a quick heads-up analysis.

Stay happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EUR/USD Market Update With TWAP

Yesterday in our EUR/USD Market Update we mentioned the stubborn support level... and it still holds. Today the market tested again that level inside of the daily balance area and could not continue to move lower. Same picture for the US Dollar Index that is trading inside of a bracket with a resistance level.

Daily

240 minutes

US Dollar Index (Daily)

Anyway, here is the TWAP Update for EUR/USD. We will using the monthly, weekly and intra-day TWAP to better visualize the current imbalances and balances that occuring on the various timeframes. Here is the description about TWAP from our Trading Glossary again:

Twap is an abbreviation for the Time Weighted Average Price. This is just like VWAP only it is weighted upon time. This is also an order type that many institutional investors utilize to work in and out of significant positions. It behaves like an Iceberg order by only showing a certain amount of orders to be executed but continues to refresh the orders throughout the session until the position is complete.

Let's start out with the monthly TWAP and we can see a quite rotational month so far. The market is trading around the previous month's VAL close level and sitting currently above the monthly developing value low. There is actually plenty room for a downside move:

With looking at the weekly TWAP, we can see that the market has been rejected several times from the previous week's VAL close level. The market is trading in a rotational behavior here as well.

Moving forward to the intra-day TWAP, we can observe resistance at the previous day's VAH close level and a small selling imbalance in the London session. However, the market found support at our persistent level and lead the market back into the developing value to quiet down a bit.

As said, there is still plenty room for the downside. The US Dollar Index seems also ready to test the daily bracket area high. Anyway, firstly and foremost the market have to breakt the mentioned levels. Keep it simple and be open minded for every scenario.

Stay happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EUR/USD Market Update

After some wild days for the EUR/USD currency pair let's take an updated look into this market. As usual, we going trough our top down analysis process to better understand the market structure and to form some possible conclusions as well as potential scenarios.

Starting off with the macro perspective, we can cleary observe an imbalanced market that one time framing lower since several months. This month the market opened inside of a balance area that occured back in 2003. We'll see how the market will behave at the bracket high/low. Let's keep an eye on that levels.

Also with the weekly chart, we can see a very selling imbalanced market. The previous week ended the one time framing lower condition in some degree but bear in mind that the previous week actually closed below the week's high and formed a potential resistance area. The likelihood of testing the low again should be high.

Moving forward to the daily bars chart strengthens our short conclusions as we can cleary see a balanced market condition here. There is lot of air to the downside but the market have to break a stubborn support level inside of this balance area that holds since several days like in today's market as well.

The 240 minutes chart pointing out today's support at the previous balance area high to the tick:

Last but not least is to take a look into the US Dollar Index. Here we can see a balanced behavior in the daily perspective with a potential test of the bracket high conclusion.

If the market could break this mentioned support level inside of the daily balance area we should see some lower movements to the bracket low. As we know the currency market is sometimes a uncertain area with wild swings, so look out and calculate as well as manage your risk with the highest attention.

Next time we will take a look with TWAPs on this market again.

Anyway, stay happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Copper Technical Market Analysis

Last time we covered the beast metal market Gold. Today we will show our technical top down perspective on Copper (Cash Market). We are going through the various chart time periodicities to get a feeling for the overall market context and the path of least resistance. To accomplish this we are using the simple concepts of AMT (Auction Market Theory) and the understanding of balance and imbalance.

With that said, let's start out with the monthly bars chart that is one time framing lower since 6 months. The actual new month is an inside bar so far. There is plenty of air to the downside but we are identiefied a potential support level that is marked on the screenshot below. We'll see what will happen here.

Moving forward to the weekly bars chart, we can see a possible forming of a balance area as the previous week ended the one time framing lower behavior that occured since several weeks. A break above this bracket area could lead us finally to higher prices. However, the macro is still imbalanced to the short side, so we'll see how the market will react in this area.

With installed Exponential Moving Averagea (EMAs), we can observe a rotation back to the "month's average" (5EMA). The market stopped its move to higher prices at this level. Short-term as well as long-term trend is cleary bearish to the downside. Macro selling imbalance cleary visible currently with this tool:

The daily bars perspective showing us some deeper informations to work with. The market shows a balanced behavior and moved back into the previous bracket area. A resistance area inside of this balance area is marked and could lead the market to the bracket low. A potential break of this low should lead us to the next possible support level:

As with the weekly bars chart we should consider a look with EMAs here as well. The market broke the first two short-term EMAs and got rejected by the 20 EMA (green line). So we have possible support at the week's average (5 EMA). Bearish long-term trend is still intact.

With this quick analysis and the state of the market we could conclude a possible move towards to the downside. Anyway, as usual everything is possible and we should be open minded for other possible scenarios as well as using some other analysis tools to better understand the told market story.

Stay happy because success is only a habit!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Technical Market Perspective For Gold

The metals are one of the most volatile but lucrative sectors of the market. The metals can provide enormous swings and thus provide huge trading opportunities from both a swing trade as well as intra-day trade perspective. Gold is a beast market with huge scary moves but they can also be incredibly rewarding when you're on the right side of the order flow. With that said, it is very important to read the higher time frames to figure out the path of least resistance. As usual, here is our top down perspective for Gold beginning on a larger scale with the Monthly Bars:

With looking at this periodicity, we can see the market is trading within a large bearish channel with several tests of the channel's bottom. Finally the market found support at the 61.8% Fibanocci level from the key swing low on this chart. After a three month balanced behavior the market broke out to the upside and moved back into the previous balance area. A one time framing higher move to the bracket area high or a further imaginable move to the channel's top is probable. However, a potential resistance area is marked:

Moving forward to the weekly chart, we can observe a one time framing higher market that occured for three weeks and ended in the previous week. Technically is a rotational market behavior between the two marked support/resistance levels possible. Bear in mind that this market is a beast and could break these levels with ease.

If we look at just the weekly EMA chart, we can see the established bullish short-term trend with support at the 50EMA:

Looking a the daily perspective, we can observe a bullish channel and a potential balance area. The chennel's bottom served several times as support and brought the market to the upper level of this channel. Two days ago we tested the channel's mean and yesterday we found support to close as an inside bar. The market need to break the previous high for a possible re-test of the bracket top.

Observing the plain EMA chart, we can see the intact bullish short-term trend with support at the 20EMA (green line) level. Today we opened above the 5EMA as well as the 10EMA but there wasn't much support.

With all the mentioned informations here we could conclude a developing bullish market with a current balanced behavior in the daily bars perspective. As mentioned a break higher should lead us to the daily bracket high. Everything can happen here, so be open minded and react to market generated informations. We could also extend our analysis process with the Time Price Opportunities (TPO) Profile or the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) charts but more is sometimes less. Anyway, if you don't know about these tools please take a look into our trading glossary or visit our community to learn more.

Stay happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weekly Crude Oil Educational Market Report

Welcome to February! The weekly educational Crude Oil (Contract: CLH5) market report for for the Close of January 30, 2015 has been posted on our trading community. All members with an elite membership have free access to this reports every week. The report covers a weekly summary, market analysis, some thoughts about the COT report and with potential scenarios for the next week.

We have to point out that this report is simply an educational observation of the market and is not to be construed as investment or trading advice.

Go to the crude oil educational market report >>

10-Year T-Note Futures Technical Perspective

The 10 Year Treasury Note contract is one of the most liquid futures contracts that currently exists. Similar to the E-mini S&P 500 contract, large market participants are able to execute huge positions on a daily basis with no issue of liquidity and/or slippage. Here is a screenshot from the CME Group's website, section Interest Rates (Close of January 29, 2015).

As we can see, the ZNH5 (10-Year T-Note March 2015) has with 1,241,381 the most Globex volume, followed by ZFH5 (5-Year T-Note March 2015) with a Gobex volume of 634,016 for today.

Anyway, here's a top down perspective of the Notes filtered through three plain bar timeframes: monthly, weekly and daily. As usual we start out with the monthly bars chart. The first thing to note is that this market pushed above the balance area that occured since several months (more than a year). Actually there has been two attempts to break lower but the market got back into the bracket area. Now we broke out above the balance area to test our bullish and bearish trendline as well as the bottom of a previous bracket area. So far the market rejected this bracket low to the tick. Also, this balance area low is confluent with the 61.8% Fibanocci level. We'll see what the market will do here.

Monthly bars chart with installed Fibanocci tool:

Looking at the weekly bars chart, we can observe a one time framing higher market that occurs since four weeks. The previous week was as the current week an inside bar. Since three weeks the market rejecting this resistance area here. A break above should continue the one time framing behavior to the upside.

Moving forward to the daily bars perspective, we can cleary see the balanced condition in this market currently. Inside of this balance area the market is one time framing higher for a possible test of the bracket high. However, with today's inside day the market formed a potential resistance level. With installed EMAs we can see that the bullish short-term trend as well as the long-term tred on this timeframe is intact. Several days ago the 20EMA served as nice support and followed by continues support at 10EMA. Today the market actually rotated back to this week's average (5EMA) and found support.

We would like to elaborate this analysis with VWAPs but this would be too much informations here, so take a look into our community and eduction sections to learn more about our VWAP analysis process as well as other tools we use in our analysis and trading approach.

Stay focused and happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.