WTI Crude Oil Market Update

Let's take a look into the WTI Crude Oil (spot price) market. As usual, we start out with the higher time frame perspective to figure out the path of least resistance. We will also show you the quaterly VWAP in action that we use in our trade methodology next to the monthly, weekly and daily VWAPs. However, firstly we should consider a look with plain candlestick bars starting with the monthly timeframe.

After a heavy one time framing lower market that occured several months the market finally found balance in this area. We bracketing around since two months with a current test of the upper balance area. We'll see how the market will react to this level now.

Moving forward to the weekly bars chart, we can observe a one time framing higher behavior since three weeks inside of a clear balance area. Currently the market testing the high of this bracket area. It will be iteresting to see what will happen here. Will we see rejection or a continuation of the upside movement to test some higher prices?

On the daily perspective the market is testing a balance area high as well. Important to note is the difference between various spot price data feeds. In this feed it appears we broke above the bracket high but on another data feed the market rejected the balance area high. Take a look at this three charts here:

Amazing, which one should we use now? For intra-day traders the very right one would be the best choice as it is the current futures May contract price. For long-term traders the spot price feed would be better as of holding positions for several weeks or months. However, there are a lot of options like continuous or back-adjusted charts and whatever more but this this is another story for itself as well as the topic about which levels are the very correct ones and which feed is better for the technical analysis purpose... Feel free to discuss this on our trading community anytime.

Let's take a quick look with installed EMAs as well. On the weekly chart we can see that the market broke the first two short-term trend EMAs and is on the way to test the third one. The daily short-term trend is actually intact and with the break of the first longer-term trend 50 EMA it seems the market moving higher to test the 100 EMA.

Well, let's moving forward to the Quaterly VWAP. With looking at this chart, we can see the market is trading above the developing value (whole blue area) as well as above the previous VWAP value close area. The VWAP slope of the developing value is also to the upside. We'll see how the market will react to the mentioned balance area high as this could lead us back to the developing value. Currently it appears we could still test some higher prices as there should be a lot of liquidity above the bracket highs.

Here is also a screenshot from the current TPO chart. You can read and learn more about this as well as about our intra-day trading approach on our trading community. Also, feel free to discuss about our top down technical analysis process. We looking forward to see you there!

Stay happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brent Crude Oil Market Analysis

Here is our top down perspective for Brent Oil (Cash Market) with plain candle charts to understand the big picture in a simple way and to identify the path of least resistance. As usual, we will start out with the monthly timeframe periodicity. With looking at this timeframe, we can actually see that the market ended his one time framing lower behavior that occured since several months as January's high got taken out from the previous month. We can also see January's "successfull" reaction to the support level. However, in the actual month the market came back all the way down to the test the bullish trendline. We'll see how the market will react to this level as the forming of a potential balance area is possible as well.

Moving forward to the weekly chart, we can identify a balance area with a current possible scenario to the test the bracket low around $48.00.

With the installed EMAs on this timeframe we can observe that the market gone below the month's average line (5EMA) and the current week got rejected from this level as well. So, there is plenty room to the downside here:

With looking at the daily bars chart, we can see various balance areas. Yesterday the market got back into a previous bracket area with a strong move and currently the market is testing the low of this balance area. This could serve as possible support as well as the support level around $53.00.

Possible explanation of that support area could be the 50% Fibanocci level here:

Yesterday the market accepted the 10EMA as resistance and today we moved below this week's average line (5EMA).

It will be interesting to see what will happen in the next days, but with all this informations we could conclude a path of least resistance to the downside with continued downside rotations. However, we should bear in mind the daily bracket low and have a open mind for other possible scenarios.

Stay happy as success is "only" a habit!

Orange Juice Technical Market Analysis

To fine tunning our technical analysis it is a good idea to explore some other markets, out of curiosity and diversity as well as to sharpen our senses. The concept of thinking outside or inside the box appeals here as well. It does not mean to trade an other market or something but to go out and playing around like a kid is always a good idea in our opinion. With that said, let's check out the Orange Juice market!

It is very important to read and understand the bigger picture of a market. It is not funny to stick around with a piece of a puzzle. You will play the whole game and have much more fun with all pieces altogether to create the big picture. So here we go again with the monthly macro perspective as usual. We can see a price channel, the installed Fibanocci retracement tool and a lovely bracket area on this timeframe. The market rejected the 50% Fibanocci level that was confluent with the price channel's high. Currently the market is testing the lower area of this price channel that is actually confluent with the drawn bracket area high. A break should lead us to some lower prices again.

We keep it simple with the weekly bars chart. The market broke out of its actual balance area and moved into the previous micro bracket area with support at the balance area's bottom. The previous week was an inside bar, so we have a rotational balanced market here.

Looking at the daily bars chart, we can see the support at the 61.8% Fibanocci level and the current balanced behavior with a the recent test of the bracket low. With this information the market could see some higher prices to test the daily bracket area high for example. Actually there is also a wedge to keep an eye on.

With installed EMAs on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the market is trading below all six EMAs. Looking at the daily EMAs, we can see today's break of the first two short-term trend EMAs, so a test of the 20EMA should be possible.

Weekly EMAs

Daily EMAs

We'll see how the market will react to the mentioned levels. Stay open minded as everything can happen.

Stay happy!

SPX 500 Top Down Perspective

Next to the 10 Year Treasury Note contract the E-mini S&P 500 contract [ES] is the most liquid futures contract that currently exists. With that, we should take a quick look into this market with our top down analysis process. In this process the first piece of information is the larger picture Monthly bar chart to understand the macro behavior of the selected market.

Looking at this monthly bar chart, we can see a heavy bullish imbalanced market. Obvious is the outside bar that could be a first sign of change in market context. However, the previous month was an inside bar and the current month seems to break higher. Currently the market is testing the marked resistance level. We'll see what will happen here.

The weekly chart is heading towards to the drawn bracket area high.

The daily perspective showing this balanced behavior in a more clear and greater detail. Currently the market is one time framing higher in this balance zone and moving forward to the bracket high.

With looking at the weekly EMAs, we can see support from the short-term trend 5EMA as well as 10EMA. The 20EMA served various times also as a great support:

The daily short-term as well as long-term bullish EMA trend is intact with current support from the 5EMA:

It will be interesting to see where this market will break out. The market could find resistance at the daily/weekly bracket high to return to lower areas again. However, a stop-run scenario to higher areas is possible as well. You can find more indepth analysis with VWAPs and TPOs on our trading community. This top down perspective was only a quick heads-up analysis.

Stay happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EUR/USD Market Update

After some wild days for the EUR/USD currency pair let's take an updated look into this market. As usual, we going trough our top down analysis process to better understand the market structure and to form some possible conclusions as well as potential scenarios.

Starting off with the macro perspective, we can cleary observe an imbalanced market that one time framing lower since several months. This month the market opened inside of a balance area that occured back in 2003. We'll see how the market will behave at the bracket high/low. Let's keep an eye on that levels.

Also with the weekly chart, we can see a very selling imbalanced market. The previous week ended the one time framing lower condition in some degree but bear in mind that the previous week actually closed below the week's high and formed a potential resistance area. The likelihood of testing the low again should be high.

Moving forward to the daily bars chart strengthens our short conclusions as we can cleary see a balanced market condition here. There is lot of air to the downside but the market have to break a stubborn support level inside of this balance area that holds since several days like in today's market as well.

The 240 minutes chart pointing out today's support at the previous balance area high to the tick:

Last but not least is to take a look into the US Dollar Index. Here we can see a balanced behavior in the daily perspective with a potential test of the bracket high conclusion.

If the market could break this mentioned support level inside of the daily balance area we should see some lower movements to the bracket low. As we know the currency market is sometimes a uncertain area with wild swings, so look out and calculate as well as manage your risk with the highest attention.

Next time we will take a look with TWAPs on this market again.

Anyway, stay happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Copper Technical Market Analysis

Last time we covered the beast metal market Gold. Today we will show our technical top down perspective on Copper (Cash Market). We are going through the various chart time periodicities to get a feeling for the overall market context and the path of least resistance. To accomplish this we are using the simple concepts of AMT (Auction Market Theory) and the understanding of balance and imbalance.

With that said, let's start out with the monthly bars chart that is one time framing lower since 6 months. The actual new month is an inside bar so far. There is plenty of air to the downside but we are identiefied a potential support level that is marked on the screenshot below. We'll see what will happen here.

Moving forward to the weekly bars chart, we can see a possible forming of a balance area as the previous week ended the one time framing lower behavior that occured since several weeks. A break above this bracket area could lead us finally to higher prices. However, the macro is still imbalanced to the short side, so we'll see how the market will react in this area.

With installed Exponential Moving Averagea (EMAs), we can observe a rotation back to the "month's average" (5EMA). The market stopped its move to higher prices at this level. Short-term as well as long-term trend is cleary bearish to the downside. Macro selling imbalance cleary visible currently with this tool:

The daily bars perspective showing us some deeper informations to work with. The market shows a balanced behavior and moved back into the previous bracket area. A resistance area inside of this balance area is marked and could lead the market to the bracket low. A potential break of this low should lead us to the next possible support level:

As with the weekly bars chart we should consider a look with EMAs here as well. The market broke the first two short-term EMAs and got rejected by the 20 EMA (green line). So we have possible support at the week's average (5 EMA). Bearish long-term trend is still intact.

With this quick analysis and the state of the market we could conclude a possible move towards to the downside. Anyway, as usual everything is possible and we should be open minded for other possible scenarios as well as using some other analysis tools to better understand the told market story.

Stay happy because success is only a habit!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Technical Market Perspective For Gold

The metals are one of the most volatile but lucrative sectors of the market. The metals can provide enormous swings and thus provide huge trading opportunities from both a swing trade as well as intra-day trade perspective. Gold is a beast market with huge scary moves but they can also be incredibly rewarding when you're on the right side of the order flow. With that said, it is very important to read the higher time frames to figure out the path of least resistance. As usual, here is our top down perspective for Gold beginning on a larger scale with the Monthly Bars:

With looking at this periodicity, we can see the market is trading within a large bearish channel with several tests of the channel's bottom. Finally the market found support at the 61.8% Fibanocci level from the key swing low on this chart. After a three month balanced behavior the market broke out to the upside and moved back into the previous balance area. A one time framing higher move to the bracket area high or a further imaginable move to the channel's top is probable. However, a potential resistance area is marked:

Moving forward to the weekly chart, we can observe a one time framing higher market that occured for three weeks and ended in the previous week. Technically is a rotational market behavior between the two marked support/resistance levels possible. Bear in mind that this market is a beast and could break these levels with ease.

If we look at just the weekly EMA chart, we can see the established bullish short-term trend with support at the 50EMA:

Looking a the daily perspective, we can observe a bullish channel and a potential balance area. The chennel's bottom served several times as support and brought the market to the upper level of this channel. Two days ago we tested the channel's mean and yesterday we found support to close as an inside bar. The market need to break the previous high for a possible re-test of the bracket top.

Observing the plain EMA chart, we can see the intact bullish short-term trend with support at the 20EMA (green line) level. Today we opened above the 5EMA as well as the 10EMA but there wasn't much support.

With all the mentioned informations here we could conclude a developing bullish market with a current balanced behavior in the daily bars perspective. As mentioned a break higher should lead us to the daily bracket high. Everything can happen here, so be open minded and react to market generated informations. We could also extend our analysis process with the Time Price Opportunities (TPO) Profile or the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) charts but more is sometimes less. Anyway, if you don't know about these tools please take a look into our trading glossary or visit our community to learn more.

Stay happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

10-Year T-Note Futures Technical Perspective

The 10 Year Treasury Note contract is one of the most liquid futures contracts that currently exists. Similar to the E-mini S&P 500 contract, large market participants are able to execute huge positions on a daily basis with no issue of liquidity and/or slippage. Here is a screenshot from the CME Group's website, section Interest Rates (Close of January 29, 2015).

As we can see, the ZNH5 (10-Year T-Note March 2015) has with 1,241,381 the most Globex volume, followed by ZFH5 (5-Year T-Note March 2015) with a Gobex volume of 634,016 for today.

Anyway, here's a top down perspective of the Notes filtered through three plain bar timeframes: monthly, weekly and daily. As usual we start out with the monthly bars chart. The first thing to note is that this market pushed above the balance area that occured since several months (more than a year). Actually there has been two attempts to break lower but the market got back into the bracket area. Now we broke out above the balance area to test our bullish and bearish trendline as well as the bottom of a previous bracket area. So far the market rejected this bracket low to the tick. Also, this balance area low is confluent with the 61.8% Fibanocci level. We'll see what the market will do here.

Monthly bars chart with installed Fibanocci tool:

Looking at the weekly bars chart, we can observe a one time framing higher market that occurs since four weeks. The previous week was as the current week an inside bar. Since three weeks the market rejecting this resistance area here. A break above should continue the one time framing behavior to the upside.

Moving forward to the daily bars perspective, we can cleary see the balanced condition in this market currently. Inside of this balance area the market is one time framing higher for a possible test of the bracket high. However, with today's inside day the market formed a potential resistance level. With installed EMAs we can see that the bullish short-term trend as well as the long-term tred on this timeframe is intact. Several days ago the 20EMA served as nice support and followed by continues support at 10EMA. Today the market actually rotated back to this week's average (5EMA) and found support.

We would like to elaborate this analysis with VWAPs but this would be too much informations here, so take a look into our community and eduction sections to learn more about our VWAP analysis process as well as other tools we use in our analysis and trading approach.

Stay focused and happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USD vs CNH Technical Analysis

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Here's a quick technical perspective what we are seeing with the USD/CNH currently. As usual, we will walk through our top down process looking for the path of least resistance and market context.

To start out, let's take a look at where we are from a pure Monthly bars and Weekly bars perspective to view the macro context. We can see that the market formed a balance area in the previous months. Actually the market broke out to the upside and trading above that balance area now. With the installed Fibonacci levels we can see that the market found support at the 50% and the 61.8% level to form the bracket area. Currently the market testing a potential resistance area but could heading toward to the next marked area in the new year.

With looking at weekly bars chart, we can identify a one time framing higher market that occurs since several weeks. Also the previous week's high got taken out from the current one. However, we can observe a rejection area with the previous bracket low that holds since two weeks.

With installed EMAs on this weekly timeframe we can see that a bullish short-term trend is intact currently.

Moving forward to the daily perspective we can identify some brackets and gaps. With yesterday's close and today's open the market actually broke this current balance area. As we know gaps are potential areas that could be revisit. The market opened and moved lower to revisit and fill that open gap. There is also one more potential gap lower to target. With today's close within the bracket a test of the balance area low is somewhat probable.

It looks like the stream of buying died up here and some guys took profit today. This could lead to more short selling to revisit the next gap. With a close below 6.2135 the likelihood to explore lower prices would be higher. Anyway, everything can happen. Let's stay focused and react to market generated informations.

To learn more about our more indepth market analysis and methodology please visit our Trading Community

Success is an habit!

Natural Gas Market Analysis

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This is an educational top down technical market perspective on Natural Gas. Looking at the monthly bars chart, we can see that this month opened in the middle of the balance area and took out the previous month's low. The market trading below this balance area now and moving forward to the next potential bullilsh support area that actually hold two months ago. Also, we can observe how the previous month got rejected from the last bracket area.

The previous week's low got taken out at the first day on this week and we are testing currently a potential support area. We'll see how the market will will react to this level now. The outside bar four weeks ago was the first heads up for a probable change in trend direction. This was followed by two inside weeks and the previous week finally took out the outside bar's low and closed below its range.

With a more bearish view we are moving forward to the daily bars chart. This timeframe one time framed lower since six days and left behind a gap area that could be a possible area to revisit. Friday's market took out the high from Thursday but closed inside of Thursday's range, so actually it was not a sign of change in trend. Anyway, today the previous low got taken out and the bearish trend remains. The next potential support area is marked on the chart.

Also interesting to mention on this daily timeframe was the nice support at the 61.8% Price Retracement level as well as the support at 50% level on the second test.

Looking at the weekly and daily timeframe with installed EMAs, we can see that the market is trading below the short-term EMAs as well as the long-term EMAs on both periodicities. Today's market for example opened around last week's average, so the probability of more selling occurring was high.

Let's take a look on the Regular Trading Hour's (RTH) TPO profile. We can cleary see a Double Distribution profile with an open gap area in the middle of last week's range. The previous week's low got taken out and the market left behind a unsecured high in the current profile.

Today's market opened inside of Firday's range and in the upper distribution area (ETH TPO Profile). All the day the market moved continuously lower and cleard Friday's unsecured low as well.

We hope you've enjoyed this quick educational market analysis recap. Stay happy and think simple!

What is VWAP, RTH, ETH, Bracket etc?
Take a look into our Trading Glossary.

You want learn more about our Trading Methodology?
Visit our community site or website to learn more about how we trade day-to-day. With an elite membership for example you can read some more indepth educational analysis posts and download our chart templates for Sierra Chart and NinjaTrader.