Monday, February 16, 2015

Russian Ruble USD/RUB Market Update

Let's take a updated technical look into the USD vs RUB market. As usual, we start out with the plain monthly perspective to better understand the macro market structure. Looking at this timeframe, we can see a one time framing higher market. We see a selling tail candle followed by two inside months so far. Means the market is in a balanced state on this timeframe currently.

Moving forward to the weekly bars chart, we can observe that the last week ended the one time framing higher behavior as it took out the lows from the previous two weeks. The previous week's low got taken out as well today. We also marked some potential support/resistance levels that could help to form a balance area here. We'll see.

Now looking at the daily perspective, we can see some more details. The market nicely stopped at the marked resistance level and balancing lower now. We can identify several balance areas on this time timeframe. Currently the market seems to have some support at the orange bracket low but got back into the green bracket at the same time. Potential scenario could be a test of the green lows or a move back to the orange highs again. However, the daily bars chart is one time framing lower, so a break of today's high could lead the market back to the orange highs but bear in mind the green bracket high. We know... confusing situation here but it's only some analysis nothing more or less.

Let's check also the EMAs. The current week trading below the month's average but seems to have some support at the 10EMA. The daily perspective actually broke the three short-term trend EMAs to the downside and today's market seems to have tested the first long-term EMA 50.

Weekly EMA Chart

Daily EMA Chart

As mentioned a end of the daily one time framing lower behavior could lead us higher again. A non-break should lead us lower to the mentioned green balance area lows. We'll see.

Keep it simple!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.