Thursday, February 12, 2015

SPX 500 Top Down Perspective

Next to the 10 Year Treasury Note contract the E-mini S&P 500 contract [ES] is the most liquid futures contract that currently exists. With that, we should take a quick look into this market with our top down analysis process. In this process the first piece of information is the larger picture Monthly bar chart to understand the macro behavior of the selected market.

Looking at this monthly bar chart, we can see a heavy bullish imbalanced market. Obvious is the outside bar that could be a first sign of change in market context. However, the previous month was an inside bar and the current month seems to break higher. Currently the market is testing the marked resistance level. We'll see what will happen here.


The weekly chart is heading towards to the drawn bracket area high.


The daily perspective showing this balanced behavior in a more clear and greater detail. Currently the market is one time framing higher in this balance zone and moving forward to the bracket high.


With looking at the weekly EMAs, we can see support from the short-term trend 5EMA as well as 10EMA. The 20EMA served various times also as a great support:


The daily short-term as well as long-term bullish EMA trend is intact with current support from the 5EMA:


It will be interesting to see where this market will break out. The market could find resistance at the daily/weekly bracket high to return to lower areas again. However, a stop-run scenario to higher areas is possible as well. You can find more indepth analysis with VWAPs and TPOs on our trading community. This top down perspective was only a quick heads-up analysis.

Stay happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.