Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Crude Oil Market Observations

As a follow-up of the video analysis I thought to share some updated observations on Crude oil. Especially to point out is the mentioned rotational market behavior around the acceptance area in the weekly volume profile. Here the current supportive level as well as the resistance area from the weekly volume profile:

Looking at the daily profiles, we opened inside of the volume value. So, a possible rotational behavior between the value extrems was pretty expected. If you consider the weekly levels over the daily levels, you can quickly understand today's market action. However, it seems like our lovely 'P' shaped profile is visible and additionally we opend above the TPO value. Why not consider the VPOC and the TPO VAH as support then? Firstly we did not took out any high or low in terms of grabbing liquidity. Secondly, again the weekly levels are more important that the daily areas of interest.

If we take a look at the plain daily perspective, we can observe the seeming end of a three day one-time-framing higher behavior as Friday's low got taken out yesterday. Actually, the market closed above Friday's low, so we can't consider this as a break, I guess. However, we can conclude that buyers and sellers are in agreement of this balanced price range and awaiting the Crude oil inventories this week so far.

We should also take a look at the weekly timeframe by the way. Looking at this, we can identify a on time framing higher behavior that is occuring since several weeks. Also to notice is this previous small balance area that seem to serve as resistance currently.

We will see in which direction the market will break. Anyway, I will monitor today's close for any possible indications to conclude a possible "break-out because of inventories" scenario for the next day. Stay focused.