WTI Crude Oil Market Update

Let's take a look into the WTI Crude Oil (spot price) market. As usual, we start out with the higher time frame perspective to figure out the path of least resistance. We will also show you the quaterly VWAP in action that we use in our trade methodology next to the monthly, weekly and daily VWAPs. However, firstly we should consider a look with plain candlestick bars starting with the monthly timeframe.

After a heavy one time framing lower market that occured several months the market finally found balance in this area. We bracketing around since two months with a current test of the upper balance area. We'll see how the market will react to this level now.

Moving forward to the weekly bars chart, we can observe a one time framing higher behavior since three weeks inside of a clear balance area. Currently the market testing the high of this bracket area. It will be iteresting to see what will happen here. Will we see rejection or a continuation of the upside movement to test some higher prices?

On the daily perspective the market is testing a balance area high as well. Important to note is the difference between various spot price data feeds. In this feed it appears we broke above the bracket high but on another data feed the market rejected the balance area high. Take a look at this three charts here:

Amazing, which one should we use now? For intra-day traders the very right one would be the best choice as it is the current futures May contract price. For long-term traders the spot price feed would be better as of holding positions for several weeks or months. However, there are a lot of options like continuous or back-adjusted charts and whatever more but this this is another story for itself as well as the topic about which levels are the very correct ones and which feed is better for the technical analysis purpose... Feel free to discuss this on our trading community anytime.

Let's take a quick look with installed EMAs as well. On the weekly chart we can see that the market broke the first two short-term trend EMAs and is on the way to test the third one. The daily short-term trend is actually intact and with the break of the first longer-term trend 50 EMA it seems the market moving higher to test the 100 EMA.

Well, let's moving forward to the Quaterly VWAP. With looking at this chart, we can see the market is trading above the developing value (whole blue area) as well as above the previous VWAP value close area. The VWAP slope of the developing value is also to the upside. We'll see how the market will react to the mentioned balance area high as this could lead us back to the developing value. Currently it appears we could still test some higher prices as there should be a lot of liquidity above the bracket highs.

Here is also a screenshot from the current TPO chart. You can read and learn more about this as well as about our intra-day trading approach on our trading community. Also, feel free to discuss about our top down technical analysis process. We looking forward to see you there!

Stay happy!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPX 500 Market Update

A new week lies ahead and we saw a strong SPX 500 market today. So, with the new week we shold consider a quick look at the plain weekly bars chart to check the flow of the bigger story. As we can see the market behaves in a balanced way on this timeframe. The previous week found resistance at the bracket high and ended the week with a loss to settle 2,24% lower alongside with a supportive test of the balance area low. Actually we opened inside of this balance area with the potential scenario to move all the way back to our lovely bracket high.

Moving forward to the daily perspective, we can see Thursday's nice buying tail candle followed by an inside day and today's break above the lower balance area. The market moved all the way back to test the upper bracket low after it broke the high from Thursday. (Please note that this is a SPX 500 Cash chart and not the ESM5 futures contract)

Today's nice trade location was the nice pullback after the market broke Thursday's high (ETH):

We'll see how the overnight session will develop the current bullish situation. Anyway, stay open minded and happy!

Please visit our trading community to learn a more indepth analysis process with various tools such as the VWAP or Footprint chart.

Brent Crude Oil Market Analysis

Here is our top down perspective for Brent Oil (Cash Market) with plain candle charts to understand the big picture in a simple way and to identify the path of least resistance. As usual, we will start out with the monthly timeframe periodicity. With looking at this timeframe, we can actually see that the market ended his one time framing lower behavior that occured since several months as January's high got taken out from the previous month. We can also see January's "successfull" reaction to the support level. However, in the actual month the market came back all the way down to the test the bullish trendline. We'll see how the market will react to this level as the forming of a potential balance area is possible as well.

Moving forward to the weekly chart, we can identify a balance area with a current possible scenario to the test the bracket low around $48.00.

With the installed EMAs on this timeframe we can observe that the market gone below the month's average line (5EMA) and the current week got rejected from this level as well. So, there is plenty room to the downside here:

With looking at the daily bars chart, we can see various balance areas. Yesterday the market got back into a previous bracket area with a strong move and currently the market is testing the low of this balance area. This could serve as possible support as well as the support level around $53.00.

Possible explanation of that support area could be the 50% Fibanocci level here:

Yesterday the market accepted the 10EMA as resistance and today we moved below this week's average line (5EMA).

It will be interesting to see what will happen in the next days, but with all this informations we could conclude a path of least resistance to the downside with continued downside rotations. However, we should bear in mind the daily bracket low and have a open mind for other possible scenarios.

Stay happy as success is "only" a habit!

Trading Education, Products and Services

As there are some inquiries about our trading education products and services as well as speculations about the fees etc. we thought to post here a quick summary about everything to better understand the various membership levels that we offer for you.

Firstly, here the introduction from our About page:

The Private Banker provides his education content in a combined online community approach. In this way the client is able to learn with like-minded traders and in their own pace. The included premium education sections are a step-by-step based program to learn more of the fundamentals, then learn about risk before learning about the trading segment. In this mentioned process the trader can share ideas, discussing the underlying topics as well as journal the daily progress with the methodology altogether on one simple place. Additionally The Private Banker contribute the necessary chart templates, tools, platform set-up help and educational market analysis within the community as well.

This education based online community is available in three different access levels: Free Membership, Elite Membership and Premium Membership. You can learn more about the vaiours access areas visiting our Education page.

With that said, let's elaborate the numerous membership levels that are available to access different areas of our trading community:

Free Membership

With this first level you can test our forum to get a feel for our trading community. You will have access to some threads and you can read Trading Journals from other Free Members as well as create your own with some constructive Feedback from The Private Banker or other members.

Elite Membership

This second level of membership allows you to access every thread on the community except the premium education sections. Additionally you will be able to download our chart templates for Sierra Chart or NinjaTrader, including the several tools such as VWAP, Footprint, TPOs and other valuable tools. For the NinjaTrader TPOs you may need to subscribe to a third parties named Fin-Alg. Sierra Chart offers you with the 5th package all the tools you will need.

Besides of access to almost all threads and the downloadable chart templates you are able to read several Trading Journals and Educational Market Reports from The Private Bankers as well as from the several members on our trading community. You can access the Live Market Discussion Area (Chat Room) to discuss with The Private Banker and other members about the actual state of the markets.

As elite member you will have access to a huge collection of informations about AMT (Auction Market Theory), Trading Platforms and Data Feeds, Trading Journals, Educational Market Reports and much more for a one-time fee of £74.99 GBP.

Premium Membership

With the highest level of membership you will have access to the premium educational sections as well as to all other threads.

The Premium Trading Education Sections provides easy to follow presentations discussing the specific underlying educational sections. The idea is to learn more of the fundamentals, then learn about risk before learning about the trading segment. Once you move into the Trade Methodology, you're getting up to speed on everything and moving on to the Performance Tracking section. You can then start to structure a business to plan for your long term wealth creation. It covers also our Top Down Technical analysis process to understand the overall market structure and to identify the path of least resistance. With the various tools you will learn to take trades with logical stop as well as target placements.

As the elite member you can also download the chart templates and tools we use in our daily trading and analysis. Of course you will have access to all elite journals, market reports and the live market discussion room. You can read the written educational pieces or watch the available presentations anytime anywhere. All this is available for a one-time fee of £999.00 GBP.

Other Services

To get a impression of our work you can follow our Twitter Feed, read our free to access Trading Glossary with various terms we use in our trade methodology, reading this blog (make sure to subscribe per email ;-) or explore some feebacks from our valuable members.

Summary

With all that said, there is only a one-time (Elite or Premium) fee to access our trading community without any other hidden fees from our part.

Create an Account

The process of creating an account is very simple. Visit the Sign-Up page and choose the membership level you want to buy:

Fill out the simple form with username, name, password and email address, read and agree our Terms & Conditions and click Register:

You can use PayPal (also without PayPal account possible) to pay your one-time fee and everything is done.

Questions
Please let us know if you have any issues or questions anytime via email:
contact[at]leprivatebanker[dot]com

We will response more than happy as soon as possible.

Brent Crude Oil COT Report February 10, 2015

Besides of the WTI Crude Oil COT Report we should also consider a look into the COT Report for Brent Crude Oil Futures and Options combined as well as NYMEX and ICE combined. With that said, we can see a total Open Interest of 2,663,517 of which Managed Money is long positioned with 269,674 contracts and short positiond with 114,800 contracts makes a net long position of 154,874 contracts.

Money Managers were net buyers of 15,046 contracts with a long liquidation of 2,062 contracts and a short covering of 17,108 contracts in the week ended February 10, 2015.

Source:
ICE COT Report
COT Report

Orange Juice Technical Market Analysis

To fine tunning our technical analysis it is a good idea to explore some other markets, out of curiosity and diversity as well as to sharpen our senses. The concept of thinking outside or inside the box appeals here as well. It does not mean to trade an other market or something but to go out and playing around like a kid is always a good idea in our opinion. With that said, let's check out the Orange Juice market!

It is very important to read and understand the bigger picture of a market. It is not funny to stick around with a piece of a puzzle. You will play the whole game and have much more fun with all pieces altogether to create the big picture. So here we go again with the monthly macro perspective as usual. We can see a price channel, the installed Fibanocci retracement tool and a lovely bracket area on this timeframe. The market rejected the 50% Fibanocci level that was confluent with the price channel's high. Currently the market is testing the lower area of this price channel that is actually confluent with the drawn bracket area high. A break should lead us to some lower prices again.

We keep it simple with the weekly bars chart. The market broke out of its actual balance area and moved into the previous micro bracket area with support at the balance area's bottom. The previous week was an inside bar, so we have a rotational balanced market here.

Looking at the daily bars chart, we can see the support at the 61.8% Fibanocci level and the current balanced behavior with a the recent test of the bracket low. With this information the market could see some higher prices to test the daily bracket area high for example. Actually there is also a wedge to keep an eye on.

With installed EMAs on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the market is trading below all six EMAs. Looking at the daily EMAs, we can see today's break of the first two short-term trend EMAs, so a test of the 20EMA should be possible.

Weekly EMAs

Daily EMAs

We'll see how the market will react to the mentioned levels. Stay open minded as everything can happen.

Stay happy!

Russian Ruble USD/RUB Market Update

Let's take a updated technical look into the USD vs RUB market. As usual, we start out with the plain monthly perspective to better understand the macro market structure. Looking at this timeframe, we can see a one time framing higher market. We see a selling tail candle followed by two inside months so far. Means the market is in a balanced state on this timeframe currently.

Moving forward to the weekly bars chart, we can observe that the last week ended the one time framing higher behavior as it took out the lows from the previous two weeks. The previous week's low got taken out as well today. We also marked some potential support/resistance levels that could help to form a balance area here. We'll see.

Now looking at the daily perspective, we can see some more details. The market nicely stopped at the marked resistance level and balancing lower now. We can identify several balance areas on this time timeframe. Currently the market seems to have some support at the orange bracket low but got back into the green bracket at the same time. Potential scenario could be a test of the green lows or a move back to the orange highs again. However, the daily bars chart is one time framing lower, so a break of today's high could lead the market back to the orange highs but bear in mind the green bracket high. We know... confusing situation here but it's only some analysis nothing more or less.

Let's check also the EMAs. The current week trading below the month's average but seems to have some support at the 10EMA. The daily perspective actually broke the three short-term trend EMAs to the downside and today's market seems to have tested the first long-term EMA 50.

Weekly EMA Chart

Daily EMA Chart

As mentioned a end of the daily one time framing lower behavior could lead us higher again. A non-break should lead us lower to the mentioned green balance area lows. We'll see.

Keep it simple!

All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.